My 2016 Election Predictions (June 22)

JUNE 22 election predictions

Trump doesn’t need Florida. Find 2012/2008 demographic breakdowns, plug possible changes into a sim, and observe:

Tantum Malorum added,

Whitelash Walt @WaltBismarck

trump probably needs florida, guise. VA and MI won’t go our way unless there’s a summer Happening.

1/Simply adjust black vote-share and turnout from historic Obama highs to something closer to Kerry’s results. What effect do you see?

2/Even with, say 91% of blacks voting D and 60% turnout Dems, are down to 50.9% of the vote. (Ignore that Trump polls at 24% w/ the blacks!)

3/Now if you think that Trump is going to get a serious edge on Romney in white votes and turnout, Trump has far more votes than he needs.

4/E.g. if Trump gets somewhere between 60% and 65% of the white vote, w/ turn-out between 65% and 70%, he wins about 50.6% of the vote.

5/But that’s not all! That 50.6% of the πopular vote gives him a massive lead in the electoral college, perhaps 325-213. Why? Pretty simple:

6/These demographics give the Dems huge leads in states they were winning in any event, with Republicans squeaking to victory in many states

7/That effect intensifies as more Hispanics swing to the Dems. With 79% of H voting D, Trump wins 306-232, pop vote 49.7%-48.6%.

8/And in fact, Trump could in this scenario concede 88% of the Hisp vote to Hillary, lose Florida, & still win Pennsylvania and the election

9/Remember, this is with very conservative guesses on the black and (in the last scenario) hispanic vote, bullish predictions on white vote.

10/And this is a dumb demographic model. It does not take into account the fact that, if hispanics vote against Trump, that will be centered

11/in useless Mexican votes in CA, not precious Cuban votes in FL; doesn’t take into account losing useless UT Mormons, gaining OH unions.

12/If current polls suggest to you Trump won’t rocket past Romney’s share of white vote, well, they also suggest very rosy minority support.

  • (replies)
  • R.Q.: it really depends on white women. I’m not optimistic – women largely don’t get Trump.
  • Me: White women, or single/childless white women? Eg single women were heavily Obama 67%-31% vs 53% married wom. voting for Romney
  • R.Qyes, I mean the normal Republican white woman demos – married/non-college. I don’t know if he’ll get same margins are Romney
  • Me: Republicans generally do better with college-educated voters, actually